Vision 2025
Our home base being the Canary Islands, we need to seriously devise a strategy to overcome the difficulties ahead for the archipelago and demonstrate the divers solutions we have been investigating. For us on the islands, we face 2 very scary prospects: first of all, we depend almost 99% on oil for our energy needs (electricity) and transportation (no alternative to cars), despite very honorable governement efforts to diversify into renewable energy. Second, we almost completely depend on imported food by sea and air, and some of the potable water is desalinated, using tremendous amounts of electricity.
So, many challenges a lying ahead. In order to seriously tackle all the divers aspects of our vision, we make here an appeal to sponsors in order to be able to fulfill our self imposed duties.
For those who want to help us financially, please get in touch though our e-mail, or call us. Thank you all.
the transition team
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What lies ahead:
The difficulties are mainly in the realm of international finances, energy, food & water and climate change. The unfortunate thing is that these 4 main problem drivers are combining and will make for a very though future ahead.
Specifically:
1) The international financial crisis, according to the best economists and analysts, started by mid 2007 and is going to be very long lasting and very deep. Easy and cheap credit is gone for a long time to come, the time horizon looks like 5 to 10 years before any significant recovery. Trust has been broken on all levels. Trust is is a very difficult thing to recover !
2) The energy question: fossil fuels like oil and gas are getting more and more difficult to find and extract. The world's energy watchdog IEA (International Energy Agency) recognizes, in it's 2008 report, exactly this problem and puts a price tag of about 1000 Billion US $ per year to keep up with energy depletion and growth in demand. In the present reality unfortunately, the contrary happens (due to the above point No.1). Lots of new oil projects are canceled due to credit constraints, and will be for a longtime. Our very own research can only confirm all this. We fast reach a point where even on a pure economic scale, the costs to get oil dont make any more sens if compared to renewable energy.
3) Food: apart from the unbelievable number of newcomers to the human family (about 1.4 billion people will join the existing base within the next 15 years...), we do have transport problems due to point 1 (the financial crisis), fertilizer and pesticide problems due to point 2 above, and last but not least: soil erosion, flooding & drought problems leading to 6 years in a row of bad harvest worldwide, due to point 4 below.
4) Climate in crisis. I suppose that this is the most well known of our major problems and most people heard about it. It is the biggest long term threat. I just want to point out that this crisis is in constant acceleration and overshooting one tipping point after another.
Well, all this is not new. Indeed, 35 years ago, as very good study was presented by the club of Rome regarding the very problems we are now fighting. The title is fittingly "The limits to growth", and we are very much on track with what was said 35 years ago.
We need to act now if we want to have a chance to save ourself and our children.
This is where we come up with a bold vision, adapted to the archipelago :
A world living free from oil.
A planet healing and thriving.
And our environment and economy brought back into balance with each other.
This is our action plan :
Generating clean, CO2 free electric energy offshore, out of sight, by using solar thermal and algae biomass. For this project, a full pre-study of several hundred pages is provided by the association. The project covers 100% of the islands needs 24 hours a day, year in year out. The technology is available, and can be implemented fast and efficiently. The path to energy independence for the Canary Islands lies offshore, taking advantage of it's southern location and the vastness of the surrounding oceans, leaving the natural beauty of the archipelago intact.
2)
Converting the transportation system (cars, new trains and trams) to 100% electricity. It's the way to the future, already being implemented on a fast track in many countries right now. (see below)
The immediate advantage
Use of existing infrastructure regarding distribution of energy, on a industry and consumer level.As consumers, we can continue our love affair with cars, and even rekindle that relationship by experiencing transportation as a sustainable service. As nations, we can redefine the economics of transportation by breaking the connection with oil. And as a global population, we can see our environment flourish because of our economic growth and prosperity.
Think of it like this: The plug we use to charge our electric cars, the people who drive those cars, the planet we live on, and our mutual prosperity are all interconnected.
PLUG: When we recharge our zero emission electric cars, we’re plugging into a “smart” mobile transportation service that eliminates our addiction to oil.
PEOPLE: When we drive, we’re still in the cars we know and love. The only things that change are how much less we pay, how much more we’re benefiting our world, and how much better we can feel about driving.
PLANET: Together, we achieve global oil independence, reduce greenhouse gases, and create new markets for renewable energy.
PROSPERITY: As we build the new infrastructure to lessen our dependency on oil, we create a carbon-free economy that generates new jobs, levels the global playing field, and creates sustainable and environmentally beneficial growth for future generations.
We cannot continue generating our electricity needs by the means of fossil fuels. Our cars cannot run on oil and gas forever. The resource is running out, the price is crippling our economy, and the continued use of it is harming our planet.
Regarding cars, many technologies are jockeying to replace the internal combustion engine. We’ve studied them all, and have decided that the electric drive train is the world’s best option. It could transform our cars into vehicles that produce economic prosperity in harmony with the environment, and end our addiction to oil.
That’s why the battery-powered electric vehicle is the centerpiece of our vision for sustainable, zero-emission transportation as a service.
Please explore the following sections to see why we chose this technology over other low- and zero-emission alternatives, how the infrastructure for the electric car is already being built, and how this vision is already becoming a reality, today.
The goal:
No emissions.
Zero.
This goal is achievable, and we should accept nothing less. That’s why we’re incorporating time-tested lithium ion battery technologies into electric cars as part of our sustainable transportation network.
What about Hybrids? You can buy one today, and they are definitely an improvement over a standard internal combustion engine. But they still need oil. Not as much, but they still need it. They won’t break our addiction to oil, they’ll simply make it last longer.
And hydrogen fuel cells? All they produce is water vapor. But the technology to mass-produce them is years away, and we must begin the transition of our infrastructure now, with today’s technology.
The capability to build an all-electric car network is available today. Around the world, auto makers, battery manufacturers, energy companies and governments, are making rapid progress. Israel has declared its commitment to be oil free by 2020. Denmark has reaffirmed its global environmental leadership by committing to a renewable energy-powered electric car network, presenting new market opportunities for its considerable stores of wind energy. Australia has made the commitment to reducing its carbon footprint by utilizing its robust renewable energy supply. And the San Francisco Bay Area will now be the electric vehicle capital of the U.S., delivering electric vehicle infrastructure to its citizens. Twenty-five more countries around the world are already talking about how they can be part of this future.
We are on an accelerated path to something truly amazing: sustainable transportation and economic growth that actually benefits our planet, and leaves nothing behind ... except the addiction to oil.
Electric cars, with their powered grids and batteries, create an enormous new market for utilities. And that market becomes the ultimate driver of renewable energy. The power storage issues that hinder the growth of green power will be alleviated as the electric car infrastructure becomes a repository for excess electricity. As the electric car network grows, the market for green energy will grow with it, encouraging future investment in wind farms, solar power fields and geo-thermal plants. It won’t happen overnight. It will take years for the world to make this transportation. But the electric car network being created is the surest and quickest way for us to achieve it.... a work in progress, more:
We like to share some excellent thoughts ( even if we do not agree on some very disputable points...) from
the US Chamber of Commerce Energy Plan
Posted by Heading Out on November 28, 2008 - 9:23am
(Credit "The Oil Drum")
Well they say that “the Times they are a changin’ ” and with the impending change in the Administration and its approach to energy , and the change in the leadership of the Energy and Commerce Committee in the House, I suspect that change is what we are going to get. One indicator of a possible path forward comes from the U. S. Chamber of Commerce, where General James Jones, anticipated to be the next National Security Advisor, has been heading a panel that has just issued A Transition Plan for Securing America’s Energy Future. So I thought we might take a quick look at what it says. To quote the preamble
Global demand (for energy) will increase by more than 50% between now and 2030 – and perhaps by as much as 30% here in the United States. We must develop new, affordable, diverse, and clean sources of energy that will underpin our nation’s economy and keep us strong both at home and abroad. Our energy future must address growing shortfalls in infrastructure capacity and emerging environmental issues. . . . .And looking ahead, even the most optimistic among us must conclude that we are not well positioned to anticipate nor prepared to meet tomorrow’s energy needs.
Based upon an initial list of 13 pillars that had been submitted as an open letter earlier this year, the Chamber has presented a detailed plan to move forward. The thirteen pillars are:
1. Aggressively Promote Energy Efficiency
2. Reduce the Environmental Impact of Energy Consumption and Production
3. Invest in Climate Science to Guide Energy, Economic and Environmental Policy
4. Significantly Increase Research, Development Demonstration and Deployment of Advanced Clean Energy Technologies
5. Significantly Expand Domestic Oil and Gas Exploration and Production (economically justified)
6. Commit to and Expand Nuclear Energy Use (this point is more than questionable)
7. Commit to the Use of Clean Coal (very difficult to implement and extremely expensive)
8. Increase Renewable Sources of Energy
9. Transform our Transportation Sector
10. Modernize and Protect U.S. Energy Infrastructure (valid for all countries worldwide)
11. Address Critical Shortages of Qualified Energy Professionals
12. Reduce Overly Burdensome Regulations and Opportunities for Frivolous Legislation
13. Demonstrate Global Leadership on Energy Security and Climate Change.
To ensure that the program is given the importance it deserves, the plan recommends the creation of a new office within the Executive Office of the President, to coordinate energy policy. Further that the holder of this post should sit on the National Economic and National Security Councils.
The plan then goes ahead to list 88 recommendations as a roadmap to meeting the above imperatives. In the interests of space, and time, I am not going into all of these – they are broken down into initiatives from the President and Administration, those that involve the Administration and Congress, those that relate mainly to Congress, and the Individual States. They are divided by the thirteen themes listed above, so let me briefly glance at each sector and give you my abbreviated thoughts on the recommendations for that theme.
In the area of Energy Efficiency, part of the recommendations relate to tax incentives for items such as more energy efficient buildings and the installation of more efficient appliances, windows, furnaces etc, but carry those on into the electric grid and smart grid devices. Since the document is from the Chamber it is more oriented toward business, but Alan wrote to me earlier this week about the Energy Savings that can come from retrofitting homes, citing the Austin Energy initiative, and the significant energy savings it has accomplished by the sort of Aggressive approach that the Chamber seems to be advocating. This pro-active sort of program is claimed to have saved the energy of a 500 MW power plant already, and at that level would also seem to deserve inclusion in the agenda, but does not appear.
Moving on to Environmental Impacts (separated from Climate Science) it seeks Congressional activity to give tax credits for retrofitting existing coal-fired power plants to reduce criteria pollutants and carbon dioxide emissions. It also seeks clarification that greenhouse gas emissions should not be regulated under the Clean Air Act or the Endangered Species Act.
There is an interesting paragraph in the section on Climate Science, which largely calls for a greater investment in Climate Science, and the integration of data. It reads:
To maintain the public’s trust and support and to ensure transparency, researchers who receive federal support should be required to disclose their data, models, and other relevant material, subject to protections for confidential business information, so that results can be assessed and reproduced.
Perhaps, having read of some of the issues that Steve McIntyre has had with the hockey stick plot of global temperature rise, I will quietly tiptoe away from this one. It is difficult to dispute, however, the need for the integrated surface, ocean and space-based observation network that the plan calls for.
In the field of Clean Energy Technologies the plan calls for venture capital firms and businesses to work within the national laboratories to commercialize technologies being developed there. It calls for a new ARPA-E program or its equivalent to fund high-risk, exploratory research on innovative concepts and enabling technologies, and also notes the need for an Electrical Energy Storage Initiative to develop cost-effective technologies that can store 50 to 100 MW of power, for use with intermittent technologies (I presume that means wind and solar). It calls for doubling federal spending on Energy Technology R&D, a long-term tax credit for companies in that area, and a Clean Energy Bank that will be able to accelerate the market penetration of advanced clean energy technologies.
Under the section dealing with the expansion of Domestic Oil and Gas Production it seeks to open the Outer Continental Shelf, encourage the Alaska natural gas pipeline and the expansion of the leasing program for access to fuel sources on non-park federal lands. It recommends repeal of the rule that prevents the federal government from using non-traditional transportation fuel sources.
Seems that Leanan had noted that the Bush Administration was doing something about the access to federal lands earlier last week, we’ll just have to see how that one plays out. As to the fuel source issue, seems to me there was a Congressman . . .
And speaking of Congressmen, it should be noted that if Leanan’s catch on the new head of the Energy and Commerce Committee not liking hydrofracing holds up then it is possible that the techniques that are currently producing gas from the shales of the East and Mid-West might be in trouble. He seems a sort of determined type of guy, so again, we’ll just have to see how that plays out.
Under the section dealing with the Expansion of Nuclear Energy, the plan calls for a resolution of the storage issue for spent fuel, and growth in the strategic stockpile of uranium.
Under Clean Coal technology it suggests partnering with other governments in advancing CCS technology, it recommends $500 million toward the IGCC program and related carbon capture technology research, and $500 million for an IGCC demonstration plant, with creation of an industry-funded research program to support further R&D in this area. It suggests that tax credits be used to encourage the first five or six advanced coal-fired plants.
When discussing Renewable Sources of Energy, the plan does not single out different potential programs, but rather (within the framework of doubling overall federal R&D spending) recommends more research and more tax credits to encourage investment. Maybe they think that all the current commercials for the technology, and the support of T. Boone will be all that it takes.
The recommendations for the Transportation Sector include encouragement for the military to find alternate sources of fuels for military use. Interestingly it is here that the possible conflict between biofuels and food is addressed, with the suggestion of a multi-agency review, though the problem gets tossed to the National Academies for recommendations. Sadly there is no encouragement of urban transportation systems, such as those that Alan, inter alia, advocates.
Infrastructure recommendations include the implementation of a smart grid, the inclusion of refined products in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which should be grown to 1 billion barrels, and the problems that water availability is going to bring to the production and availability of energy.
Hmm, and the section on the Critical Shortage of Energy Professionals – apart from the nice sounding “providing adequate financial and institutional support for researchers”, I don’t see a lot of recognition of a real program that will help get us where we need to be, though it contains the appropriate phraseology. Motivation, motivation, motivation . . . (so--when are we all retiring ??)
Under the heading of Reducing Frivolous Litigation, it suggests streamlining the permitting of refineries, a federal siting authority and a review of the Clean Air Act to allow routine maintenance. (This one goes right by me – I have no clue!!)
And that brings us to the final recommendations on Leadership in Energy Security and Climate Change. This includes the safety of international shipping routes, and the raising of energy as a critical part of the U.S. trade agenda. In light of our other ongoing discussions on the IEA it does recommend a strengthening of support for that Agency, and for the expansion of its membership to include India and China. It also calls for the creation of an International Clean Energy Fund, and as something close to Matt Simmon’s heart
Nations should improve transparency, reliability, and availability of oil and gas market data as well as their analysis of long- and short-term supply and demand trends to help make the world energy market less volatile.
I would encourage you to visit the site, and then add comments to perhaps explain some of the issues that I have glossed over. We will see if it has any future.
And here is an other proposal for a world in transition:
the Green Chamber of Commerce:
Goals:
(this covers pretty much what our association needs to do as well)
* Strengthen the voice and political influence of businesses united to create green public policy and a sustainable economy.
* Actively work to conserve natural resources, eliminate dependence on fossil fuels and reverse global warming.
* Extend the ideas, best practices and influence of green businesses large and small.
* Increase awareness of the unprecedented opportunities in the emerging green economy.
* Promote the interests of businesses that are committed to measuring their success in terms of benefit to people, planet and profit.
* Work with existing organizations in their efforts to create green, sustainable business models.
* Help businesses and the general public learn what they can do to support a healthy environment.
* Provide networking opportunities for green businesses.
* Provide promotional opportunities for members
* Encourage awareness of the relationship between social responsibility and green business practices.
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